Summary Abstract
June 2024
In this report, we investigate trends in death rates from neurological diseases (ICD-10 codes G00-G98) for all age groups in the US using data from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). We also perform a detailed analysis for younger individuals aged 15 to 44. We investigate trends in neurological diseases where these appear on the death certificate under multiple causes (MC) of death, or as the underlying cause (UC), as well as the trends in the ratio of multiple cause to underlying cause death rates.
GO TO FULL REPORT >>
For individuals aged 15 to 44 we show a rise in excess mortality from neurological diseases reported as the underlying cause of death, with a 4.4% increase in 2020, 10.0% in 2021, 9.9% in 2022 and 8.1% in 2023, with Z-Scores of 4.9, 11.1, 11.0 and 9.0 in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating highly statistically significant changes, particularly in 2021, 2022 and 2023. When looking at excess neurological disease deaths reported as multiple cause (MC) of death, we observe that these track all-cause mortality rises, registering excess mortality of 11.2% in 2020, 20.6% in 2021, 14.7% in 2022 and 7.1% in 2023, which were also highly statistically significant. However, for excess neurological disease deaths reported as multiple cause of death, once deaths where COVID-19 was also reported are removed, we observe that these follow a very similar pattern of excess deaths to that observed for neurological deaths when reported as underlying cause.
We also show that excess deaths from neurological diseases as underlying cause occurred for most age groups, with the strongest effect in ages 15-44. For individuals 65 and older there appears to be no statistically significant rise in excess mortality. The larger rise of excess death rates from neurological diseases reported as one of multiple causes compared to the underlying cause indicates that some deaths from these diseases are being brought forward by other causes, such as COVID-19-related deaths. Consequently, the rise in neurological disease deaths as underlying cause we report in the paper likely under-reports the described effect, particularly for older individuals.
In this report, we investigate trends in death rates from neurological diseases (ICD-10 codes G00-G98) for all age groups in the US using data from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). We also perform a detailed analysis for younger individuals aged 15 to 44. We investigate trends in neurological diseases where these appear on the death certificate under multiple causes (MC) of death, or as the underlying cause (UC), as well as the trends in the ratio of multiple cause to underlying cause death rates.
GO TO FULL REPORT >>
For individuals aged 15 to 44 we show a rise in excess mortality from neurological diseases reported as the underlying cause of death, with a 4.4% increase in 2020, 10.0% in 2021, 9.9% in 2022 and 8.1% in 2023, with Z-Scores of 4.9, 11.1, 11.0 and 9.0 in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating highly statistically significant changes, particularly in 2021, 2022 and 2023. When looking at excess neurological disease deaths reported as multiple cause (MC) of death, we observe that these track all-cause mortality rises, registering excess mortality of 11.2% in 2020, 20.6% in 2021, 14.7% in 2022 and 7.1% in 2023, which were also highly statistically significant. However, for excess neurological disease deaths reported as multiple cause of death, once deaths where COVID-19 was also reported are removed, we observe that these follow a very similar pattern of excess deaths to that observed for neurological deaths when reported as underlying cause.
We also show that excess deaths from neurological diseases as underlying cause occurred for most age groups, with the strongest effect in ages 15-44. For individuals 65 and older there appears to be no statistically significant rise in excess mortality. The larger rise of excess death rates from neurological diseases reported as one of multiple causes compared to the underlying cause indicates that some deaths from these diseases are being brought forward by other causes, such as COVID-19-related deaths. Consequently, the rise in neurological disease deaths as underlying cause we report in the paper likely under-reports the described effect, particularly for older individuals.
The results indicate that from 2020 a novel phenomenon leading to increased neurological deaths appears to be present particularly in younger, working age individuals aged 15 to 44, which requires further investigation.
Review Analysis in Detail
Conclusions
Suggestions for Further Research
|